11/18/17

Reese Kaplan -- Reading Between the Lines Part 2


Mack will kill me for saying this, but perhaps for the sake of your own sanity perhaps now is not the time to read all of the media coverage and speculation about what the Mets will do during this Hot Stove Season.  First of all, it’s depressing to hear again and again that the Mets don’t have the financial resources (or inclination) to spend for top tier talent.  Where have we heard this song before?  Oh, right…every since Sandy Alderson came in the mandate has been to cut payroll and save on expenses. 

Wait, but didn’t we also hear that the financial problems were in the rearview mirror?  Didn’t we hear that the Madoff mess was over?  Didn’t we read about the new TV deals?  Didn’t we read about the money saved by David Wright’s insurance?  Didn’t we witness a huge fire sale that saved tens of millions of dollars in salary dumps?  Didn’t we hear as recently as last year that the team was “all in” to win?

The reality is that the club will not spend for the cream of the crop.  That means no Wade Davis, no J.D. Martinez and no Jake Arrieta.  As frustrating as it is to acknowledge this fiscal reality, we’ve all been watching this club during the previous seven years.  Do you remember Eric Campbell batting cleanup?  Do you remember great pitchers like Aaron Laffey and Shaun Marcum?

I’d love to believe that things will change.  I still don’t expect real money to be spent lavishly on premier free agents, but I can hope that it will be spent judiciously and effectively on whomever they deem worthy of addition to the roster. 

The first order of business to me is the starting rotation.  I’ll concede that Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard should be healthy and as dominating a duo as there is in the league.  After that it’s a mess.  Matt Harvey is recovering from multiple health problems.  Ditto Steve Matz.  Ditto Zack Wheeler.  None of the trio rumored to be on the market – Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Rafael Montero – showed enough consistency that you’d feel confident trotting them out there every five days.  So by my count you go into 2018 with two proven and formidable starters.  After that it’s a lot of hopes and prayers.

Again, get the Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta daydream out of your heads.  For that matter, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn both rejected a sure thing $17.4 million payday after receiving QOs, so that means they are pipe dreams as well.  We’ve heard the name Jason Vargas but he’s coming off a deal well north of $10 million for half a season of good production. 

No, you’re going to have to get creative.  The Mets do not have the international bonus pool money (nor the juevos) to be serious players for Shoei Ohtani though being able to pitch and take ABs in the outfield would indeed solve two problems in one.  However, unless they arrange some trades for international pool money this weekend before posting bids are due on Monday, say sayonara to the Japanese Babe Ruth.

Instead you have to start looking at the secondary and tertiary tiers of starters.  I’m frankly not interested in reunions with either Bartolo Colon or R.A. Dickey.  Neither did enough last year to convince me there’s much left in the tank. 

Instead I’d be looking at Jhoulys Chacin, Andrew Cashner, Deck McGuire (who?), and others who are both healthy and on the lower end of the starting pitcher salary spectrum.  After all, by some miracle you might wind up with a healthy Matt Harvey playing for his next contract, a less brittle Steve Matz, a hard throwing Zack Wheeler – then you have an excess. 

I can see the club dangling the other three starters in deals, but frankly if someone REALLY wanted to have at Harvey, Matz or Wheeler I’d certainly not hang up the phone.  Remember what I always remind people – you have to give to get – and if you aim to get players to help in other areas then you may have to give up something of value even if it hurts to do so.  Remember, the staff had a 5.01 ERA last year so it’s not like we’re offering up Sandy Koufax.

In more efficient spending, I don’t even advocate them making a reunion with Addison Reed.  Don’t get me wrong.  His presence would be a terrific addition, but they have some good arms already for the back end of the pen, including Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos and Jerry Blevins.  Instead I want to see them value the bullpen through BOTH quantity and quality.  Guys like Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Pat Neshek, Steve Cishek or Pete Moylan won’t break the bank but will keep the team in pretty much every game.  That would be a 180 degree turnaround from the Josh Smoker/Hansel Robles/Josh Edgin 2017 season.  More importantly the shaky rotation is going to require a solid pen and it’s less expensive to build there than it is to pay for starters.

The whole whisper campaign about Dom Smith may or may not have merit, but don’t they already have a solid backup in Wilmer Flores?  Yes, it’s possible one of them could be gone in a deal, but what is the fascination with Carlos Santana who is good for about .259/23/79 and would cost a bundle.  Don’t you think either of these first base options (or a platoon) could exceed those numbers?

Similarly, for all of those people clamoring for a 2nd baseman, I am happy to give Wilmer Flores a 1-2 month trial there while Dom Smith mans 1st base and T.J. Rivera heels.  Granted, a guys like Brian Dozier, Dee Gordon or even Jason Kipnis would be nice additions in trade, but you don't have that many chips in your pile that other clubs would want.  

No, the area where I think they do need to spend is in the outfield.  I love Juan Lagares’ arm and defensive acrobatics but he’s never hit enough nor stayed healthy enough to warrant starting.  If Lorenzo Cain was the sole “big name” addition to the roster with Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto flanking him, I would enter the season a happy camper.

What is your priority in spending?  I’m thinking the $16-$18 million (per year) necessary to lock up leadoff hitter Cain, then 3 or so solid middle relievers at about $3-5 million each.  There’s $29 million spent leaving very little on starting pitching.  However, if Mack is right about the payroll going up then there should be enough to add 2 of these tertiary type starters.  THEN you can afford to bank on hopes and prayers for health of the big five starters. 

By the way, if the right deal could be struck for Juan Lagares, I’d do it to clear payroll this year and next.  Ditto Travis d’Arnaud.  Say you have $42 million to spend?  How would you do it? 

21 comments:

Unknown said...

I would like to see them sign Hosmer, Cain and Lynn and show their REALLY serious about next season. Cespedes, Cain and Conforto (with Nimmo/Lagares as backup) is my outfield with Hosmer, Flores/T.J., Rosario and Cabrera around the infield and I'm alright with a platoon of TDA and Plawecki behind the dish. With DeGrom, Thor and Lynn as our top 3 starters and good top 3 in the bullpen I'd be thrilled to go into opening day with this group. Now this would be depending of course on their willingness to actually spend some money but I can dream can't I.

Tom Brennan said...

Nice analysis...and for all my harping on Dom Smith's corpulence, I find it hard to imagine that a 1B platoon of Smith (who tore up eighties in AAA) and Flores (who loves to snack on lefties) would not produce .260/25/80 at a minimum.

So raise Cain, get a few strong pen arms (still like Reed there) and at least one solid (i.e. not Colon) starter. And trade for international $$ and try to get Otani.

A team cannot go to war with insufficient WAR.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, you are the new GM. Bold thinking. Transformative.

Mack Ade said...

The Mets signed Wade Davis, J.D. Martinez, and Jake Arrieta this morning. No... wait...

Mack Ade said...

$42mil?

You know me Reese.

#1 - A proven, healthy SP3

#2 - A proven, healthy third baseman

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, throw in Otani too. Sushi Nite at Citifield. Fans will have a yen for him.

bgreg98180 said...

Regarding Ohtani and International Bonus Pool dollars:

Wouldn't you think a capable, forward thinking GM would have been able to acquire some of the Pool money in the horrid trades that Alderson made last summer to free up payroll?

Anonymous said...

I would
1) sign Bruce for RF/backup 1st base 3 year 51 million
2) trade for Gordon- take on the whole contract and not have to give up much for him
3) Sign Lucroy 2yr 20 mill
4) sign Both CC Sabathia and Chacin
5) if we don’t get Bruce sign Ben Revere to platoon with Lagares in CF

Zozo

Unknown said...

All I know is that I want ownership/management to field not only a competitive team but one that will be front of the pack . I don’t know which available players whether via free agency or trade will fit that bill . But if the higher ups are serious about winning they will allot whatever $ or resources available to make it so

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

We did acquire two undisclosed sums from Baltimore for two minor leaguers, though I'm sure it is short of the amount needed here.

royhobbs7 said...

Sorry, but let's be realistic here men. Fred & Jeff just don't care about their fans. They want to put the fannies in the seats, but don't really care much about the product they put on the field.
This year may be the last chance to fully benefit from the young arms as Harvey (if he returns to some level close to his 2015 season) will opt to leave beginning the exodus of the young arms who gave us so much hope in 2015-16.
Likely that Sandy will be given the go-ahead to fortify the bullpen (two or three signings of middle innings' RPs, and signing of a mid-tier RH 1B (e.g., Mark Reynolds?) to platoon with Smith. Flores and Reyes will man 3B, Legares and Nimmo, CF and Cabrera at 2B with TJ joining him later in the season.

I wouldn't expect much more. After all, when was the last time the Wilpons got into a bidding auction with any other MLB team to contract a quality player?

Tom Brennan said...

Lyle, no one can argue with your impeccable logic until the Wil - not - pons show a real change in approach. We are not holding our collective breath.

Robb said...

The first mistake i think we make as fans is trying to shoehorn free agents for next year with 5 year contracts. free agents are multi-year commitments. sure Cain, hosmer and yu darvish might be nice additions for 2018 but to do that they are also going to need to be on the team in 2022 when you'll be begging to get rid of them and they make 22 mm a year. btw how pissed would you be in 2 years when you're paying 25mm a year to a 1b (hosmer) who hits 280 with 15 hrs. good player, not worth it.

Also it never works when you make a guy who has spent his whole career playing rf and you give him big money to play a different position. GMs have learned not to do that. Thats the al advantage where hanley ramirez can always go dh when his 1b work is just terrible. Small money sure but not big free agent contracts.

If its going to take 6 years and 150 mm that guy better be a perfect fit for the next 5 years or youre just going to end up pissed. Cespedes was that, they needed a rh power hitting left fielder and paid to get one. whether that was the right one is up to you, but he ticked all the boxes and wasnt being forced in.

second, not everyone can play in new york or has the politics (and this is a new phenomenon with twitter, the constant media and the ilk) to be successful here and not piss off half the fan base. So you can take arrieta (not that he ever was coming here) off your shopping lists, as the yankees will as well. I believe this played a part in daniel murphy not coming back.

My personal opinion, go get josh harrison from the pirates, he's going to cost (lugo/gsellman, an infield prospect and maybe a reliever at least) but he fits. add a shaw or a reed (both if your feeling rich). and an adam lind type and roll with the pitching. btw, reed makes a lot more sense when you realize that ramos, familia, blevins are all free agents after 2018.



bgreg98180 said...

The way I see it is that the 2018 Mets would have to commit to a huge increase in payroll knowing that there will be bad money commitments 3 years from now.

Or

Make all of this year's decisions focused on 2019-2024.

Mack Ade said...

I could write 10,000 words in agreement with Lyle.

Tom Brennan said...

Nice suggestions - but then, there is reality, Mets style.

bgreg98180 said...

But what about in the Reed, Bruce, etc... sell offs this past summer?

Bill Metsiac said...

Question for those who want to give multi-year deals to "top tier FAs:

Of all the contracts longer than 3 years at $10 mil+ per year that have been signed in the last 10 years or so, name those that still looked good after the 1st 2 years.

Eddie from Corona said...

The problem really is here isn’t anyone to spend on... they all have a flaw that should make us pass... this isn’t next year... I don’t want to just give away 2018 but I hate shopping at Walmart... i only want them to shop at Tiffany’s...
There are 3 players the nets should be in the Market for... machado Harper and Stanton ...
I could also agree on yelch if he was made available...
1b should be a no because even if d smith fails there is Alonzo who should be given a chance and obviously Flores...

Reese Kaplan said...

@Metsiac -- Carlos Beltran immediately springs to mind, for one.

Reese Kaplan said...

@Eddie -- The name I've heard pop up recently (and very surprisingly) is Marcell Ozuna being on the block as well. He's not a FA until 2020 so I can't believe they'd even consider a deal, but if they are somehow as stupid as Sandy Alderson and want to do so I would be all over him in a heartbeat -- CF, power and a cannon of an arm.